Skip to article frontmatterSkip to article content

Deep learning for solving dynamic economic models

Authors
Affiliations
a The Graduate Center, City University of New York, CEPR, and Hoover Institution, Stanford University
Santa Clara University
ESCP Business School and CREST/Ecole Polytechnique

Abstract

We introduce a unified deep learning method that solves dynamic economic models by casting them into nonlinear regression equations. We derive such equations for three fundamental objects of economic dynamics – lifetime reward functions, Bellman equations and Euler equations. We estimate the decision functions on simulated data using a stochastic gradient descent method. We introduce an all-in-one integration operator that facilitates approximation of high-dimensional integrals. We use neural networks to perform model reduction and to handle multicollinearity. Our deep learning method is tractable in large-scale problems, e.g., Krusell and Smith (1998). We provide a TensorFlow code that accommodates a variety of applications.

Keywords:Artificial intelligenceMachine learningDeep learningNeural networkStochastic gradientDynamic modelsModel reductionDynamic programmingBellman equationEuler equationValue function

This notebook solves a version of Krusell and Smith’s (1998) heterogenous-agent model with idiosyncrastic and aggregate shocks, incomplete markets and borrowing constraints. It uses a deep learning Euler-equation method introduced by Maliar, Maliar and Winant (2018) in the paper “Deep learning for solving dynamic economic models”, Journal of Monetary Economics 122, pp 76-101. https://lmaliar.ws.gc.cuny.edu/files/2021/09/JME2021.pdf

We show a version of the Euler equation method that minimizes the sum of squared residuals in the equilibrium conditions. See https://deepecon.org for documentation, updates and the other versions of the deep learning method (Bellman equation and life-time reward).